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TOPIC: UBS Concludes Hyperinflation Most Likely in the US and UK

UBS Concludes Hyperinflation Most Likely in the US and UK 18 Jul 2012 23:00 #1

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www.businessinsider.com/hyperinflation-r...ajor-currency-2012-7
To be clear, UBS does not think hyperinflation is imminent. They estimate that there is less than a 10 percent chance over the next 12 months.

But according to a new report by UBS's Caesar Lack, the risk of hyperinflation is greatest in the U.S. and the U.K.

"Although we see a very small chance of hyperinflation in the near future, the risk should not be neglected, particularly given the ongoing unsustainable global fiscal and monetary expansion," writes Lack.

UBS examines it at length in the latest entry in their "Global Risk Watch" series.

Here are the points from Lack's paper:

Hyperinflation is a fiscal phenomenon, resulting from unsustainable deficits. Historically, it occurs after central banks monetize a large amount of debt.

It's actually more closely related to deflation than inflation "as hyperinflation can be viewed as the result of a failed attempt at printing money to avoid the deflation that would be caused by austerity."

Currently, it is a concern for the some major currencies because their path is exactly like that described above; large fiscal deficits have forced austerity and deleveraging, and countries are responding with large scale monetary easing.

The warning signs are here for several economies. UBS research finds that hyperinflation tends to happen when deficits financing more than 20 percent of government expenditure. India, the US, Japan, Spain and the UK all qualify.

The Eurozone as a whole is below that threshold, Japan is a creditor nation, and India's currency is not hugely vital to markets.
"We therefore think that the hyperinflation risk to global investors is largest in the US and the UK."

"A significant deterioration of the fiscal situation or a significant expansion of the monetary policy stance in the large-deficit countries could lead us to increase the probability we assign to the risk of hyperinflation," writes Lack.

You can read the whole paper here.
The true measure of a man is not his intelligence or how high he rises in this freak establishment. The true measure of a man is this: how quickly he can respond to the needs of others and how much of himself he can give - Philip K. Dick.
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Re: UBS Concludes Hyperinflation Most Likely in the US and UK 18 Jul 2012 23:48 #2

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The interesting thing is that the money which is being created is being loaned to the govt who are in turn immediately handing it over to the banks.
The question is just where it all disappears after then because it doesn't seem to be going into the economy...in fact if it had, we would most definitely have had hyperinflation by now.
My guess is that the banks have been borrowing from the central banks and are in turn immediately handing it back to the central banks.

If your head hurts at this point...I wouldn't blame anyone for feeling that way btw :D
“Fascists are not human. A snake is more human.” - Hugo Chávez
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Re: UBS Concludes Hyperinflation Most Likely in the US and UK 19 Jul 2012 08:09 #3

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I've never understood economy or banking, these are sociopathic constructs which lack any sense what so ever... I should avoid these topics. :D
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Re: UBS Concludes Hyperinflation Most Likely in the US and UK 19 Jul 2012 09:30 #4

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Hexhammer wrote:
I've never understood economy or banking, these are sociopathic constructs which lack any sense what so ever... I should avoid these topics. :D

If only the guys at the top would wake up and see how stupid it is eh?
The laugh of it is that the politicians can't even see it for what it is. Putting entire nation states in debt to balance digits on computer screens....its hilarious tbh.
“Fascists are not human. A snake is more human.” - Hugo Chávez
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