wake_up_bomb wrote:
True... but a lot of data that is relied upon to draw the conclusions and even offer up a timescale of how hot or cold the world has been throughout history is taken from measuring chemical levels in ice sheets which seems pretty straight forward. Although that is only one aspect of the environment. I've seen it suggested that climate can be altered by our position in the wider universe as well. That's an awful lot of factors and vectors to have to calculate.... and it only takes one missing or bogus ingredient and it's rendered useless.
It's reasonable to assume that the planet has been getting warmer, I don't believe it's possible to understand why. I just believe it's beyond the scope of human intelligence. I don't believe it's possible to accurately model the climate and then draw conclusions based on those models. It may give you some vague impression of what the climate is like, but it can't ever imitate reality accurately.
Science is very bad at understanding complex systems, it's better at proposing solutions within those systems. That's because, as you say, there are too many variables. There has been tonnes of research into cancer, but the world's leading expert couldn't come close to pinpointing why one person who smoked 20 cigarettes every day got lung cancer, and another person who did the same did not. All they can do is look at lifestyle data and try to draw some broad conclusions. They're not even really trying to understand that, they're just trying to treat the problem because actually understanding what causes cancer is too complex.
Obviously as well science is very politicised and money-driven, as everything is, and that just skews things even further. There is a scientific consensus that says pharmaceutical drugs are great, there was something publicised just this week which suggested statins are great (funded by the industry, of course), there is a scientific consensus that says we should be vaccinating our children every five minutes, there is a scientific consensus which states we should be eating a high-carb, low-fat diet, but this has been very strongly challenged as well. There is a scientific consensus which says that GM foods are wonderful. There is supposedly a scientific consensus that states Building 7 crushed itself into dust due to small fires.
It's always hard to say to what extent this is stupidity, and to what extent the influence of nefarious factors. It's hard to go outside of the box for numerous reasons, even if you're inclined to do so, and if you're the sort of person who is inclined to do so, you're probably not going to rise to a prominent position in academia or the scientific community in the first place. But I just don't have any faith in climate science whatsoever.
Agreed..... they can't even accurately predict the weather so predicting much beyond that should be treated with skepticism.
Not sure it's fair to assume the planet has been getting warmer.... afaik the earth's last major change in temperature was in 1997.
What is almost certain is that if we continue to rip down rainforests, heavily pollute the atmosphere with all manner of chemicals, pollute the oceans with endless rubbish (mainly plastic,) have general disregard for nature (such as bees,) bleed the earth dry of natural resources, poison the land with chemicals and nuclear testing..... we are fucked. There is the possibility of transcending all this AND our mortality with transhumanism.... which I think is still miles off, but you can see bit by bit how artificial objects can be entwined and integrated into humans..... from basic things like pacemakers to the more modern stuff which is seeing some paralympic athletes beat regular olympians. It would be one of the hugest coincidences ever if the environment became uninhabitable and most species died off, but humans had somehow managed to beat the environmental clock with tranhumanism. What are the chances of that? It would be almost like it was all predetermined. But I'm coming round to the idea that, in however long a timescale, transhumanism is possibly the only way in which the human race will not just survive, but evolve. It's inevitable.
What will the environment be like in 100-200 years time if we continue as we are? What will the science of transhumanism be like in the same timescale given the acceleration of technology over the last 100 years or so?
Worrying stuff!